A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
